Shuut U
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Posted - 2009.08.22 10:13:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: Venkul Mul
You are missing a point:
Invention supply is capable of (almost) infinitely increase.
The supply of moon minerals will make a ceiling in production well before the ceiling of invented BPC could be reached.
So there will be only a temporary reduction in supply, covered almost immediately by people that already invent.
So the market will stabilize at the current margin after a brief fluctuation.
Let make an example:
Currently I am inventing with only 1 character even if I have 3 characters with the needed skills.
T2 BPO are removed (CCP give no annuncement to avoid markets manipulations).
I will be tempted to start inventing the items that I feel will have a sensible decrease in supply, like everyone here I have read the QUEN, so run to invent and build interceptors.
At the same time market manipulators will be buying all the low priced interceptors as the price will increase.
For 4-5 days price spikes as the low cost interceptors disappear and are re-offered at higher prices. Interceptors price double.
Day 6 all the interceptors build by the first wave of after patch builders hit the market.
Price decrease from the 200% level it has reached to 150%.
Day 7 more latecomer inventors hit the market, price drop further.
Day 8 another wave of inventors, price drop again.
Day 9 the first wave of inventors hit again while people without frigate BPC made before the patch hit the market with his wave of interceptors.
Incompetent market speculator panics as the interceptors prices are dropping like rocks and they have brought them while the price was climbing.
Interceptors market collapse and for a period the price go even lower than before patch to later stabilize to a level that give about the same return than before patch.
If you doubt my scenario ask some expert market manipulator.
I think they will agree.
I have to agree with Venkul on this one. I think his timeline is a bit off for Jita, but for other market hubs it makes sense. The biggest factor that he missed is the builders that hold large quantities of stock, or the ones that will travel to outlying regions to buy low and sell higher.
I wouldn't expect a 200% increase in prices except for items which people normally don't invent. The other problem he is missing is the fact that if invention was the ONLY way to build T2, there would be spike with invention costs for the next 2 months. Basically, if ALL T2 construction relied on invention, datacore prices would skyrocket, causing invention and final build prices to increase.
I guess the biggest issue is, inventors are the reason that you are not making a good profit margin on T2 items. Inventors can mass produce just about any item in eve.
I was using a single character for invention, who was able to invent 400 drone runs daily. With 4 building characters, I could produce 400 drones daily. That means I can produce at least 10x more than a BPO holder.
- After that it's just rudimentary economics. If 1000 drones are purchased daily and 2000 are produced, the price drops.
- I can tell you that I do a rotation in invention items. I speculate as to when a range of items will be at a high sellpoint and coordinate my production accordingly.
- Inventors can make 20x the profit daily as to T2 BPO holders, plus BPO holders have isk tied up > than invention costs which are recouped by investors when an item is sold.
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